The Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would not secure 10 per cent of the votes in Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election if the poll is conducted freely, fairly and credibly.
Ardo made the assertion on Monday during an exclusive interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, where he assessed the performance of the Tinubu administration and its political implications ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The Northern political leader accused the administration of short-changing the region in the distribution of federal resources, political appointments and other government opportunities, arguing that the North had not received a fair share of the benefits of governance under Tinubu.
He said the disparity was particularly evident in the actual release of funds to federal ministries, stressing that budgetary allocations on paper did not necessarily reflect the resources eventually made available to government institutions.
According to him, the South had received significantly more releases than the North.
«“The budget to the ministries and the actual releases of funds, the North could have not been equated with the South at all. By far the South has received more releases, about five times than the Northern ministries.”»
Ardo also alleged that several key parastatals had been allocated to the South, a development he said had strengthened the perception among many Northerners that the region was being marginalised.
He argued that assessing regional representation should not be based solely on the number of political appointments but should also take into account access to government resources, opportunities and development.
Tinubu has Yorubanised administration, says Ardo
Ardo further criticised the distribution of key political appointments under the Tinubu administration, alleging that the President had favoured people from his ethnic group.
He said the issue had created a perception of exclusion among Hausa-Fulani communities and other groups in Northern Nigeria.
“The perception which is also true is that he has Yorubanised his administration. He has given all the critical appointments to his own kins and Yorubas. The Hausa/Fulanis and other extended groups in the North feel short-changed and this perception has created a damage to this administration in Northern Nigeria,” he said.
He, however, acknowledged the complexity surrounding the classification of states such as Kwara and Kogi within the broader Northern political structure, given their historical and cultural connections with the Yoruba.
According to Ardo, the debate over Northern representation must take account of the diversity of the region rather than treating it as a homogeneous political bloc.
Economic reforms deepen hardship
The political analyst also criticised the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy, arguing that the policies had worsened living conditions across Northern Nigeria.
“I do not see in any way how the North has benefited from the economic reforms,” he said.
Ardo argued that rising inflation and declining purchasing power had disproportionately affected the North because of the region’s large population of poor and vulnerable citizens.
“The economic reform of the administration is actually biting on everybody and it has bitten on the North more than the South. The North has a large number of poor people. Because the economic reforms have sent inflation high and the purchasing power of people has gone by far low, it has pushed the North from a state of poverty to a state of destitution,” he said.
He further claimed that the reforms had significantly weakened the middle class, while suggesting that only those connected to government were now able to enjoy substantial economic advantages.
North faces insecurity, infrastructure challenges
Ardo also faulted the administration over insecurity in the North, arguing that the government had not done enough to tackle insurgency and other security challenges confronting communities in the region.
He said the government should have drawn lessons from countries that had successfully confronted prolonged insurgencies.
“Tinubu didn’t learn from those who have knowledge and have tried it hard to stop security problems in Nigeria. He should be able to provide a solution to it, but he has done nothing,” he said.
He nevertheless acknowledged that the country’s security challenges were complex and could not be eliminated overnight.
Ardo also cited infrastructure deficiencies, including the condition of major roads such as the Kaduna-Kano road, as another area requiring greater government attention.
He said poor infrastructure continued to affect transportation, commerce and economic activities across the region.
Dangote’s business struggles
The promoter of ADA also argued that the economic reforms had placed pressure on businesses, citing the experience of businessman Aliko Dangote as an example.
He said the billionaire industrialist had faced unprecedented public controversies over issues surrounding his businesses, particularly the operations of the Dangote refinery.
“On the issue of refinery under Tinubu’s administration, Aliko Dangote was on the media defending and protesting more than he has done in his business life,” Ardo said.
He argued that if a major industrialist such as Dangote was facing difficulties under the current economic environment, smaller businesses and entrepreneurs in Northern Nigeria were likely to be experiencing even greater challenges.
2027: North may determine Tinubu’s fate
Ardo said the experiences of Northern voters under the present administration could significantly influence voting patterns in the 2027 presidential election.
He maintained that the support Tinubu received from the North in the 2023 presidential election should not be regarded as a permanent political commitment.
According to him, voters would assess the administration based on their experiences with insecurity, poverty, inflation, economic reforms and governance.
He consequently predicted a dramatic decline in Tinubu’s support across the region if the 2027 election is conducted transparently.
“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part,” Ardo declared.
He reiterated the prediction, saying, “If they conduct the election in a free and fair manner, Tinubu will not win 10 percent of the North.”
