Northern voters may reject President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the 2027 presidential election over worsening poverty, insecurity and the impact of the administration’s economic reforms, Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has said.
Ardo made the assertion on Monday during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, where he assessed the performance of the Tinubu administration in Northern Nigeria and examined its political implications ahead of the 2027 general election.
According to him, the support Tinubu received from the North during the 2023 presidential election should not be regarded as a permanent political commitment, as voters would ultimately judge the administration based on their economic and security experiences.
He said the removal of fuel subsidy and other economic reforms had increased inflation and weakened the purchasing power of Nigerians, with the consequences, in his assessment, more severe in the North because of the region’s large population of poor people.
“I do not see in any way how the North has benefited from the economic reforms,” Ardo said.
He argued that the reforms had pushed many Northerners from poverty into deeper deprivation, while also placing pressure on businesses and eroding the purchasing power of workers.
“The economic reform is by Tinubu, of Tinubu and for Tinubu’s benefit,” he said.
Ardo also accused the administration of favouring the South, particularly the South-West, in the distribution of federal resources, political appointments and government opportunities.
He claimed that the actual release of funds to ministries had disproportionately favoured the South, alleging that southern ministries had received substantially more releases than their northern counterparts.
“The budget to the ministries and the actual releases of funds, the North could have not been equated with the South at all. By far the South has received more releases, about five times, than the northern ministries,” he said.
The Northern political activist also criticised the distribution of key political appointments under the administration, alleging that it had created a perception of exclusion among sections of the North.
He said the issue of representation should be assessed beyond the number of Northerners occupying government positions, arguing that the actual distribution of resources and opportunities was equally important.
Ardo further raised concerns over insecurity in the region, accusing the administration of failing to sufficiently address insurgency and other security challenges.
“Tinubu didn’t learn from those who have knowledge and have tried it hard to stop security problems in Nigeria. He should be able to provide a solution to it, but he has done nothing,” he said.
He, however, acknowledged that the security challenges were complex and could not be eliminated easily.
Ardo said insecurity had also affected economic activities in the region, as farmers, traders and businesses continued to operate under difficult conditions.
On infrastructure, he cited the Kaduna-Kano road as an example of the challenges confronting the North, arguing that poor roads and inadequate infrastructure continued to affect movement and economic activities.
He also questioned the impact of the administration’s policies on northern businesses, citing the challenges faced by industrialist Aliko Dangote and his refinery as an indication of the difficult operating environment.
According to Ardo, the economic and security conditions in the North could influence voting patterns in 2027.
He maintained that Northern voters would assess the administration based on whether their living conditions, security and economic prospects had improved.
Ardo consequently predicted that Tinubu would struggle to secure significant support from the region if the 2027 presidential election was conducted freely and fairly.
“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part,” he said.
