A Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Professor Olufemi Otubanjo, has raised concerns over Nigeria’s worsening security situation, warning that the growing internationalisation of terrorism across the Sahel region is contributing significantly to the country’s insecurity challenges.
Otubanjo said armed criminals and insurgents displaced from conflict-ridden countries are increasingly finding their way into Nigeria, exploiting weak governance structures and ungoverned spaces to carry out criminal activities.
Speaking during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, the international relations scholar said insurgency in Nigeria has evolved beyond the activities of Boko Haram into a broader regional problem.
According to him, “The problem is that insurgency has become so international. It used to be Boko Haram alone but it looks like the insurgents are running away from different parts of the world, including Sudan. We are beginning to see Sudanese in Nigeria as bandits, coming to kidnap us.”
The professor explained that some insurgents fleeing conflicts in other African countries are taking advantage of Nigeria’s vast territory and areas with limited government presence to establish criminal networks.
“There are many places that have no presence of government. So, everybody can walk in and take over for a couple of times. And then, of course, at the end of the day, if government intervenes, those people will run away,” he said.
Otubanjo also linked rising instability in the Sahel to the effects of climate change, noting that environmental degradation and desert encroachment have displaced many people from their homes and livelihoods.
“We don’t know how much climate change is creating havoc in terms of population and livelihood. A lot of people have lost their homes. They have lost their jobs because the sand bulls have taken over their villages and communities. They are taking over their farms. And they are moving down,” he stated.
He added that many migrants moving southward should not automatically be viewed as terrorists, stressing that many are victims of economic hardship and insecurity.
“A lot of the northerners that we see in Lagos and we think that, oh, maybe they are terrorists, they are economic migrants. They are running away from hopelessness and joblessness in the north. Because there is no new investment,” he said.
Despite the persistent security challenges facing the country, Otubanjo maintained that the Federal Government and security agencies were making efforts to address the situation.
“There is a challenge of security in Nigeria. No doubt about it. And we have not overcome it but that is not to say that government is not doing what is necessary,” he said.
The professor noted that defeating terrorism and banditry requires patience, sustained military operations, intelligence gathering and regional cooperation.
“The government cannot tell you every day that we killed two or three people today, we are ending the insurgency tomorrow. It’s not done. It’s a process. And the people, of course, are impatient. Yes, we don’t want to see kidnapping again. We don’t want to see bandits. But it doesn’t happen like that. It’s a process,” he added.
Otubanjo also acknowledged the sacrifices being made by security personnel in the fight against terrorism.
“In summary, let me say that I’m not so sure I can vouch for Tinubu’s record on terrorism, but you know that they are not laying idle. And they are working. Soldiers are dying. And so we must give it to them and pray that they will do better and get us out of this mess,” he said.
He dismissed suggestions that strained relations between Nigeria and some military-led governments in the Sahel were responsible for the rising insecurity, arguing that countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso were facing similar insurgency challenges.
“Niger has its own insurgency almost on three fronts. Mali is fighting. Burkina Faso has its own challenges. These are all countries that are fighting insurgency themselves,” he said.
He added that regional cooperation against terrorism remained active through multinational security arrangements.
“We have a multinational joint task force that’s supposed to cooperate among countries in the Sahel to fight insurgency. And it’s working,” Otubanjo stated.
