Nigeria’s public debt may rise to 34.68 percent of Gross Domestic Product by the end of 2026, the Central Bank of Nigeria has warned, citing fresh borrowings to fund government fiscal operations.
The projection is contained in the CBN’s Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, 2026, titled “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty,” released on Tuesday.
The apex bank said the figure represents a slight increase from the 33.98 percent of GDP recorded at the end of June 2025.
According to the Bank, the rising debt ratio reflects an expanding fiscal deficit outlook, even though recent policy and institutional reforms, stable crude oil prices, and improved domestic oil production have helped to create some fiscal space.
The CBN noted that continued borrowing remains a key driver of the projected increase in public debt.
The outlook showed that the Federal Government’s retained revenue for 2026 is projected at N35.51 trillion, while total expenditure is estimated at N47.64 trillion.
This leaves a provisional fiscal deficit of N12.14 trillion, equivalent to about 3.01 percent of GDP.
The CBN explained that the fiscal outlook for 2026 is anchored on sustained growth in non oil revenue, supported by the ongoing implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, and other structural reforms aimed at strengthening revenue mobilisation and reducing leakages.
However, the apex bank cautioned that the rising debt profile could pose risks to macroeconomic stability if fiscal discipline weakens. It warned that excessive spending or significant deviations from approved budget benchmarks could undermine efforts to moderate inflation, put pressure on the exchange rate, and weaken investor confidence.
The Bank stressed the need for fiscal authorities to ensure that borrowing plans remain aligned with established fiscal rules and medium term debt sustainability objectives, especially at a time of heightened global uncertainty and volatile capital flows.
Beyond domestic fiscal pressures, the CBN also highlighted broader risks to the macroeconomic outlook.
These include potential disruptions to crude oil production, unfavourable climatic conditions that could affect output growth, and adverse global developments such as renewed geopolitical tensions and a possible return of protectionist trade policies.
It added that a sudden deterioration in global financial market conditions could trigger capital reversals, complicate fiscal financing, and increase debt servicing pressures for the country.
